Swat and, hence, Pakistan may just have moved away from the edge of chaos but being at a certain distance from the precipice is certainly no indication of the end of chaos. The raging insurgency has not only destroyed the state infrastructure in the area but also the societal bonds between its various constituent components. The country faces a huge post conflict reconstruction issue—both physical and political. In my view return of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) is taking place in an environment that would remain conducive for the return of Tehrek-e-Nifaz-e-Shar’ia-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) and their like under some other name and banner. Realisation that conditions in Swat and Malakand have to change is as important as the inevitability of IDP’s return journey. There is an urgent need to put in place a thinking process that finds a solution embodying durable peace and sustainable economic development for each conflict affected area.
Looking for a solution we may find common ground on three points. First, the nation in its total rejection of the extremism supported government action against the militants in Swat and elsewhere; second, the military action is not going to ‘eliminate’ the extremist elements from these areas and especially from our society; third, there is a need to find a ‘durable’ solution specific to each area.
The second point makes realization of the third one even more challenging, as it asks for a resolution which has ‘integration of the surviving militant individuals and groups in society’ as its integral element, for there would be no durable solution without managing the threat posed by the misled and misused, if they remain ostracised. It asks for fighting the disease without banishing the inflicted. Hence, any durable solution should have two fundamental elements—physical as well as political reconstruction.
The relatively easier of the two is reconstruction of the physical infrastructure— education and health facilities, roads, power and water supply—for when funds are available these are tangible goals with defined milestones. The tougher one is the ‘post-conflict political reconstruction’, of which there is little evidence that any institutional efforts are being considered at this instant. One is aware of the danger of using the term ‘post- conflict’ as it is way premature to raise the banner proclaiming ‘mission accomplished’. On the other hand, we can hardly wait for the total surrender or elimination of the militants before starting the reconstruction process in areas where comparatively peaceful conditions have been achieved.
Our experience of handling victims of the October 2005 earthquake points to three stages of the recovery process from the natural disasters—rescue, sustain and rehabilitate—the same process should hold true for the manmade disasters (read evacuate, sustain and rehabilitate) with an additional requirement of a near perfect security environment.
Beginning the third stage ie rehabilitation in Swat, which starts with the return of IDPs to what were their homes, the state must recall that returning hapless people to devastated lands is just the first step in a process that would need perseverance and unwavering commitment. We shouldn’t forget that four years down, the October Earthquake victims are still in the process of catching up with their lives. With homes and livelihoods destroyed, a paltry sum of Rs 25000 given by the GoP would help Swat’s IDPs live through only the first few days with ghastly prospects of impoverished life ahead.
Royal Geographical Society (RGS) in its report on reconstruction in Afghanistan ‘Post-war Reconstruction: Forever Re-inventing the Wheel’, noted, “The challenge of rebuilding war-torn societies is infinitely more difficult and complex than is generally recognised. The challenges of 'normal' development processes in countries emerging from conflict are amplified by the legacy of the conflict (including: physical destruction, lack of financial, material and human resources, institutional fragility, political volatility and psycho-social trauma). It more importantly says, “Perhaps the greatest lesson from successful post-war reconstruction is the importance of a clear vision for post-war recovery. Moreover, what is critical to the achievement of that vision is not the 'What?' of post-war reconstruction, but the 'How?’; a vision for a participatory process that includes local people is vital.”
Naturally the vital first step is to develop a reconstruction and reconciliation vision for the communities emerging out of conflict at the local level and for the nation as a whole. The onus squarely lies on the leadership at local and national level to put forth its visualisation of the future, and also on the intelligentsia to help leadership develop the mental picture. Needless to say restoring the old way of life would hardly qualify as a vision. Similarly making Swat ‘Switzerland of Pakistan’ would also fail the test of a vision statement though it might sound like a good political slogan.
The second step in the process is to admit that one of the least developed areas (LDA) of the country has been further pushed back in the abyss of poverty. There are shattered families, destroyed livelihoods, damaged and plundered homes, diminished health facilities, even lesser schools especially for the girls, broken roads and skeleton power infrastructure; there is hardly any government in the area except Army and other Law enforcing Agencies (LEAs), if that is considered enough presence of a state in a conflict torn area that needs rebuilding. The challenge for the leadership is a complete grasp of the situation and the scale of the task that lies ahead, if the purpose is to integrate this region in the mainstream and not let it slip back in time.
The vital third step for the physical reconstruction is the need ‘to place our money where our mouth is’, since simple rhetoric has stopped travelling too far. First and foremost requirement in these areas would be sustenance for which there needs to be a meaningful programme focused on job creation. In the short term people of the area should be involved in all reconstruction activities to enable them to buy food and they should have roof on their heads before the harsh winter sets in; in the longer term, alongside Balochistan, Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (ROZs) should also be established in Swat and Malakand to rescue people from the shackles of abject poverty. Instead of waiting for the foreign allies legislating on the subject we should make local legislation to encourage industry in these and other lesser developed areas of the country. Remember the mouth and the money.
One comes across a similar observation on the need to have a revitalised economy in war torn areas in a US Congressional Research Services (CRS) report, ‘Afghanistan: Challenges and Options for Reconstructing a Stable and Moderate State’, wherein authors comment, ”Up to a certain point the reestablishment of normal life could allow armed fighters to return to peaceful civilian pursuits, but a resurrected traditional economy cannot provide enough jobs or the right kinds of jobs to fully absorb the ranks of the former combatants of whatever stripe. Without jobs, and without a public educational system, young Afghan men are likely to gravitate to the service of warlords and/or to study in the Islamic madrassas, both in Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
We learnt from our earthquake reconstruction experience that developmental solutions evolved in local environment and specific conditions were effective, durable and less expensive. However, there is plenty to adopt from reconstruction experiences of states and international community in Balkans, Iraq and Afghanistan. One such idea that comes to mind is functioning of ‘Provincial Reconstruction Teams’ (PRTs) in Afghanistan and Iraq. Another CRS report of June 2008, ‘Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq’ elaborates the concept of PRTs as, “ Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) continue to help provincial development by strengthening local government capacity, political and economic development, reconciliation, rule of law implementation and basic services delivery. Their support of provincial governments was essential in the effort to develop ‘Provincial Development Strategies’, which outline the provincial objectives and areas of focus for the next three to five years, for 17 of the 18 Iraqi provinces.”
GoP could form professional teams drawing on the best available expertise, give them any fancy name and deploy them in aid of provincial government. Their mandate could span from preparing master plan for development to implementing it with the help of provincial government and in the process build capacity of the government institutions, carry out intra-agency coordination, liaison with international donor agencies on specific projects, promote reconciliation and strengthen local security arrangements.
Taking up the political reconstruction I visualise building on what already exists on ground—the social fibre of the area of which religious beliefs and traditions remain an integral part. The anger of local people against Taliban is a rejection of their brutal ways and total disregard of local sensibilities and not of the religion itself; hence this subject needs a thoughtful treatment. Let me pick up a comment from an earlier quoted report by RGS which says it better, “Religious belief is of great importance to people within many war-torn societies, and in some, though not all situations, religious differences, may have been emphasised by 'conflict entrepreneurs', in a bid to exploit and exacerbate conflict. Attempts at grafting western conceived notions of secularism on to deeply religious societies should be resisted. Rather, emphasis needs to be placed on promoting inter-community dialogue, helping people to re-connect with the traditions of tolerance and inter-dependence, which have often characterised their previously highly diverse communities, for centuries.”
Mosques would continue to influence religious and political thought in the area. We need to give them the status of educational institutions and, hence, support them administratively and financially. Government should include all mosques in its plan for reconstruction of schools, provision sustained financial support and ensure appointment of educated and reputable Imams in all mosques from the local population. Falling in the wrong hands we have seen these places of worship and learning become hubs of extremism. I am of the opinion that our mosques need our utmost attention, more so now.
Insurgency has severely strained social relationships in these communities. Earlier we witnessed Talibans executing innocent people in town squares and now we see their bodies hanging from poles in the same places. These are the signs of a severely brutalised society. People have been maltreated for a very long time and left ignored by those who had the means but not the will to protect them. Followers of Maulana Sufi Mohammad and Maulana Fazalullah and their victims share the same homes, streets and villages; moreover, formation of state-encouraged local Lashkars has pitted tribes and villages against each other spawning enmities that could run for generations causing endless bloodshed and misery. So what we have is broken families and ruptured communities. While we must punish those who in their quest for unlimited power misled others and committed unforgivable crimes our eye must search for people who can become part of the solution. The need is reconciliation and not recrimination. In not too distant a past South African ‘Truth and Reconciliation Commission’ was ‘country’s choice of a path of healing and reconciliation as the way forward rather than violence or punishment. It was a great example to the rest of the world about how to deal with internal conflict.’
John G Stoessinger in his masterly work, ‘Why Nations Go to War” observes, “In our time, unless the vanquished is destroyed completely, a victor’s peace is seldom lasting, those peace settlements that are negotiated on a basis of equality are much more permanent and durable.” Conflict torn regions need a peace which is all inclusive—restores relationships between people and communities—durable and one that ensures respect and prosperity for the people.
Coming back to the vision statement, it answers the question, ‘where do we want to go? It defines the ‘intended or desired future state.’ My vision statement for a Swat emerging out of the ashes of the conflict would be, “A region of stable peace, prosperity and integrated tolerant communities
